We are nearly halfway through Hurricane Season already, and we had only 3 named storms, Alex, Bonnie, and Colin. What gives? Well, the peak of Hurricane Season is still yet to happen, occurring in mid-September.
Before we begin to talk about probabilities, we must talk about what the peak of Hurricane Season means. To start, the name is a bit misleading, as there are usually more Tropical Storms that form than Hurricanes. Regardless, during the peak of Hurricane Season, there is a chance of up to 10-20 named systems spawning in the Atlantic Basin during this time. This is caused by the ever-warming waters of the ocean, less wind shear occurring, and many other factors that come into play, like moisture. With all of that out of the way, let's talk probabilities.
NOAA is calling for an above-average Hurricane Season this year, with their forecast predicting between 14-21 names storms, with 6-10 Hurricanes being among that forecast, citing the ongoing La Niña as the main culprit.
In order to stay the most safe in case of emergency, follow the directions of a local official (i.e. Governor, Local NWS Office, NHC), and follow the Official Hurricane Safety Guide.